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Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook


NEWS  -  Bancroft District                            Monday, March 17, 2014 - 1 pm


The Ministry of Natural Resources - Bancroft District is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook is in effect in the Bancroft District.


Residents of Bancroft District should keep a close watch on conditions, regularly check for updated messages and stay away from fast-moving rivers and streams.


MNR is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.




Description of Current Conditions


This message is being sent on the basis of information received from MNR - Surface Water Monitoring Centre, MNR - Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Management Services, Trent Severn Waterway and Environment Canada.


The winter of 2013/14 has been the coldest winter since 1996. Long stretches of lower than normal temperatures, above normal ice coverage and frequent snow events have dominated the weather this winter. Snow station data in our area is showing higher than normal amounts of snow on the ground due to a combination of continuous snow events with infrequent thawing conditions. With respect to snow depths, there is an average of 70-80 cm currently on the ground compared to 30-40 cm for the same period in 2012/13. Water content of snow pack is approximately average.


Reservoirs in the district are at or below the target operating level for this time of year. The MNR and the Trent-Severn Waterway (TSW) are allowing reservoirs to continue to decline in advance of the freshet. Flows on the local rivers are low because of the cold temperatures and the decrease in lake levels upstream.


Description of Weather System


The outlook for the spring months of March, April and May is for colder than normal temperatures that will be more prevalent in March and April, with more normal temperatures in May. The long term precipitation forecast indicates normal precipitation values are expected this spring; we caution, however, that long term precipitation forecasts are subject to change. Heavier, more extreme precipitation events are expected to occur during periods of mild weather and the longer the snowpack and ice remain, the more likely we will see more extreme precipitation events in late April and early May. The rate of freshet will depend on weather conditions and precipitation. It is expected that the cold start to spring will delay the arrival of warm weather.


The MNR is in regular communication with partner agencies, including Conservation Authorities, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and the TSW.


Expiry Date:

This message will expire on 03/31/2014 5:00 PM


Terminology: Notification Levels


WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions


WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.


FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities


FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.


Contact Information

MNR Bancroft District Office

Paul Shalla, A/IRM Technical Specialist, Bancroft District, 613-334-3940, x208


MNR Minden Field Office

Kris Windover, IRM Technical Specialist, Minden Field Office, Bancroft District, 705-286-5207


A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended. Environment Canada bulletins can be found at http://weather.gc.ca/


The Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage can be found here: www.ontario.ca/flooding


Town of Bancroft

8 Hastings Heritage Way, P.O. Box 790
Bancroft, ON K0L 1C0

Phone: (613) 332-3331
Fax: (613) 332-0384

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