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Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook


Bancroft District -  Monday, April 07, 2014, 4:00pm


The Ministry of Natural Resources - Bancroft District is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook is in effect in the Bancroft District.

Residents of Bancroft District should keep a close watch on conditions, regularly check for updated messages and stay away from fast-moving rivers and streams.


MNR is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.



Description of Weather System

This message is being sent on the basis of information received from MNR - Surface Water Monitoring Centre, MNR - Aviation Forest Fire and Emergency Management Services, Trent Severn Waterway and Environment Canada.

The short-term forecast calls for a quick warm up this week with temperatures in the double digits then a return to cooler temperatures. Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for the areas covered in this message with precipitation amounts of 25-35mm with the possibility of 10cm of snow forecast over the next 36hrs. The forecast five day precipitation totals is for 35-45mm of rain.

Heavier, more extreme precipitation events are expected to occur during periods of mild weather and the longer the snowpack and ice remain, the more likely we will see more extreme precipitation events in late April and early May.

Description of Current Conditions

Although some of the snowpack has melted over the last week, a significant amount of snow is still present. There is a slightly higher than normal water content in the snow. Soil surfaces are dry and unfrozen in most areas and should be able to absorb moisture. Mild temperatures combined with the forecasted rainfall will continue to melt snow and will increase water levels and flow velocities in local rivers and streams. Smaller streams and creeks respond quickly to the additional runoff, but larger water bodies, including the reservoir lakes, will take longer to react. Additional water accumulation in areas, adjacent to watercourses, road ditches and areas with poor drainage will occur. Road overtopping is

possible in some locations. With the combination of forecast precipitation and remaining ice cover on local lakes and rivers there is the potential for ice jams to form and contribute to elevated water levels and flooding in some instances.

Reservoirs in the district are at or below the target operating level for this time of year. The MNR and the Trent-Severn Waterway (TSW) continue to closely monitor local lakes and rivers as the freshet progresses.

The MNR is in regular communication with partner agencies, including Conservation Authorities, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and the TSW.

Expiry Date:

This message will expire on 04/11/2014 12:00 AM

Terminology: Notification Levels

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.

FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities

FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.

Contact Information

MNR Bancroft District Office

Paul Shalla, A/IRM Technical Specialist, Bancroft District, 613-332-3940, x208

MNR Minden Field Office

Kris Windover, IRM Technical Specialist, Minden Field Office, Bancroft District, 705-286-5207

A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended. Environment Canada bulletins can be found at http://weather.gc.ca/

The Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage can be found here:

: www.ontario.ca/flooding

Town of Bancroft

8 Hastings Heritage Way, P.O. Box 790
Bancroft, ON K0L 1C0

Phone: (613) 332-3331
Fax: (613) 332-0384

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